Hazard risk – COX 2008 http://cox2008.com/ Fri, 01 Jul 2022 01:31:11 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.9.3 https://cox2008.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/cropped-icon-32x32.png Hazard risk – COX 2008 http://cox2008.com/ 32 32 Lake Michigan swimmers beware…high risk of beach hazard https://cox2008.com/lake-michigan-swimmers-beware-high-risk-of-beach-hazard/ Sun, 29 May 2022 07:00:00 +0000 https://cox2008.com/lake-michigan-swimmers-beware-high-risk-of-beach-hazard/

WEST MICHIGAN – One of the biggest weekends of the whole year for boaters and beachgoers is upon us and the weather will be great! That said, there are dangers on Lake Michigan that you need to be aware of if your plans take you there. First, NOTICE TO SMALL BOATS are in effect for the entire shore of the lake for boaters with southerly wind speeds of around 10-20, possibly as high as 15-25 mph.

For beach lovers, a HIGH RANGE RISK the risk exists north of Grand Haven through Muskegon and Oceana counties. Swimming is not advised in these areas due to high wave action, possible rip currents, inshore currents and structural currents along jetties and jetties…especially on the south sides of these structures. The waves will be around 3 to 5 feet!

A MODERATE RISK OF BEACH HAZARD exists from Saugatuck, through Holland to Grand Haven today with waves around 2-4 feet and SMALL BOAT ADVISORY also in effect. Again, rip currents, structural currents, and coastal currents are all possible. Caution should be exercised when bathing in these areas.

The safest places to swim in Lake Michigan today will be south of Saugatuck. Southerly winds on the lake will only generate wave heights of about one to three feet. It should also be noted that the water temperature is only between 40 and 50°C, so hypothermia can set in quickly if you spend time in the water. Please be careful!

We expect wind speeds to remain strong on Tuesday as well, so be sure to check for updated forecasts. Also be sure to pay close attention to the beach with the colored flags flying. Red flags mean no swimming, yellow flags mean exercise caution, and green flags are OK to swim.

Get the full forecast on www.fox17online.com/weather.

Deputy Governor of Kaduna launches risk map https://cox2008.com/deputy-governor-of-kaduna-launches-risk-map/ https://cox2008.com/deputy-governor-of-kaduna-launches-risk-map/#respond Mon, 25 Oct 2021 05:32:59 +0000 https://cox2008.com/deputy-governor-of-kaduna-launches-risk-map/

Kaduna State Deputy Governor Dr Hadiza Balarabe launched the State Risk Map which highlights areas vulnerable to particular danger in the state.

The map, which was developed by the National Emergency Management Agency (SEMA), was launched during a media dialogue held to observe the 2021 International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction held in Kaduna.

The deputy governor also unveiled the state contingency plan 2021-2015, which will help organize and coordinate action plans to deal with natural and disaster risks.

In unveiling the documents, Dr Balarabe congratulated SEMA on their production as they will help the Agency to adequately prepare responses for disaster risk prevention and management.

The deputy governor said the media dialogue was organized by SEMA to create an advocacy platform for the collaboration between SEMA as the state emergency manager and the media.

“The state believes that the IDDRR commemoration generally sends a strong signal that there are still disasters around us, but we can control them by working together as a team.

“The International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction 2021, tagged # OnlyTogether #, provides an advocacy platform to highlight best practices and examples of cooperation that have positively impacted the lives of people living in in disaster-prone regions of the world, while reducing the number of people affected by man-made and natural hazards, ” she said.

The Deputy Governor commended SEMA for its engagement with state and non-state actors in carrying out its activities, adding that the successes recorded by the Agency in recent times can be largely attributed to these collaborations.

She commended USAID and other partners for their support in disaster management, adding that “ the Kaduna State government is proud of the role that our traditional institutions have continued to play in the overall development of the country. ‘State.

Dr Balarabe underlined the role of the media in disseminating information, sharing knowledge and raising awareness, adding that “we see the media as an essential partner in disaster management. ”

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Qeeri and Care-C plan research collaboration for environmental risk assessment https://cox2008.com/qeeri-and-care-c-plan-research-collaboration-for-environmental-risk-assessment/ https://cox2008.com/qeeri-and-care-c-plan-research-collaboration-for-environmental-risk-assessment/#respond Wed, 10 Mar 2021 17:22:22 +0000 https://cox2008.com/qeeri-and-care-c-plan-research-collaboration-for-environmental-risk-assessment/

The Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute (Qeeri) of Hamad Bin Khalifa University, and the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (Care-C) of the Cyprus Institute ( CyI), have signed a collaboration agreement to estimate and predict the risks of contamination and the associated impacts. resulting from the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides accidentally released from a large industrial installation.
The aim of the Qeeri-Care-C collaboration is to develop a methodology for the risk and vulnerability assessment of environmental hazards in the Middle East in addition to testing this methodology by estimating the risk to the population in Qatar, in the event serious accident at a nuclear or industrial risk site.
The main objectives of the agreement are the establishment of preliminary radioactivity risk maps for atmospheric deposition of radionuclides following potential nuclear accidents in the Middle East. Second, the evaluation of the risks of atmospheric deposition and of exposure of the population to radioactivity and other toxic substances following potential accidents in industrial installations. The collaboration will also lead to the establishment of an early warning system for radioactive and other toxic releases to the atmosphere in the Middle East region, using numerical forecasting tools.
Dr Huda al-Sulaiti, Senior Research Director at the Qeeri Natural and Environmental Hazards Observatory, said: “We aim to use our state-of-the-art facilities in characterization, modeling and forecasting, to establish early warning systems. to assess natural hazards and support political and decision-making processes. We look forward to working alongside Cyl to support resilience efforts to reduce and mitigate the risk of natural and environmental hazards. “
Professor Jean Sciare, Director of Care-C, said: “We are delighted to be working with Qeeri on this project. The combination of the systems we already have in place, such as Care-C’s EMAC model and Qeeri’s WRF-Chem model are helping us We work closely with global partners to conduct pioneering research programs involving high-speed peak, in order to solve problems of regional and international importance. “
Dr Marc Vermeersch, Executive Director of Qeeri, said: “We believe partnerships such as the one we recently signed with CyI resonate with our goal of being a catalyst for positive transformation in Qatar and the region while having a global impact. This partnership is crucial to leveraging the expertise of Qeeri researchers and engineers as well as specialists from CyI to assess the risks and potential impacts, and thus provide robust and timely recommendations to minimize the risks for Qatar.

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Resilience and natural risks – https://cox2008.com/resilience-and-natural-risks/ https://cox2008.com/resilience-and-natural-risks/#respond Fri, 19 Feb 2021 14:13:15 +0000 https://cox2008.com/resilience-and-natural-risks/

Resilience is the ability of individuals, communities, businesses and systems in a city to survive, adapt and thrive regardless of the types of stresses and shocks they faceThe land use planning system plays an important role in creating resilient places.

We are committed to ensuring that the risks of natural disasters are understood and considered from the outset as part of strategic planning so that communities are protected from existing and future risks. Good land use planning can help avoid or mitigate the worst effects of natural hazards such as floods, droughts and bushfires.

The NSW Government’s risk policies and guidelines help boards strategically plan and assess development proposals. These policies and guidelines ensure that land uses and sensitive infrastructure (such as homes, hospitals and schools) are located appropriately, so that communities are not at high risk and people can evacuate. safely in an emergency.

The department works closely with other government agencies, including Resilience NSW, NSW State Emergency Service, NSW Rural Fire Service, Infrastructure NSW, and local government to build resilient communities by taking a risk-based approach to planning. use of land to keep our communities safe.

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West Ahmedabad at Greater Seismic Risk, Survey Says | Ahmedabad News https://cox2008.com/west-ahmedabad-at-greater-seismic-risk-survey-says-ahmedabad-news/ https://cox2008.com/west-ahmedabad-at-greater-seismic-risk-survey-says-ahmedabad-news/#respond Fri, 21 Aug 2020 07:00:00 +0000 https://cox2008.com/west-ahmedabad-at-greater-seismic-risk-survey-says-ahmedabad-news/

AHMEDABAD: Between June and August 15 this year, at least three low-intensity earthquakes were felt in Ahmedabad ahead of the state government’s ambitious skyscraper policy, promising to change the skyline of ‘Ahmedabad. But before this policy finds its place in the existing General Development Control Regulation (GDCR), attention should be drawn to the very recent integrated seismic hazard map for the city of Ahmedabad by the Seismological Research Institute (ISR). The GDCR was formulated after the 2001 earthquake.
The map, released in October 2019, provides details of the areas where buildings are and will be vulnerable in the event of an earthquake in Ahmedabad. He claims that areas like Jodhpur Gam, Satellite, Memnagar and Thaltej fall under the very high seismic risk area. These areas are riskier than Maninagar, Isanpur and Ghodasar.

In the western part, Sola, Gota, part of Sarkhej and Vasna are “safe” according to the ISR card. The next ones in the riskier areas are Navrangpura, Usmanpura, Keshavnagar, Bapunagar, Rakhial and Narol Chokdi, while Chandkheda and its surroundings are in safe or moderate areas.
Research suggests that the presence of sand and floodplain deposits along the Sabarmati River increases the risk. “The western part of Ahmedabad presents the highest risk. The northern and eastern parts present a moderate seismic risk, ”said the study, written by Vinay Dwivedi of ISR, Vasu Pancholi, Madan Rout, Pawan Singh, B Sairam, Sumer Chopra, former DGISR BK Rastogi and RK Dubey of IIT (ISM), Dhanbad.
“23 holes were drilled”
The detailed micro-level seismic risk assessment map for the city of Ahmedabad was produced using geotechnical methods, mainly to help urban planners and structural engineers to design buildings and other engineering structures civilians to reduce the likelihood of loss of life and property in the event of an earthquake.
The map was assembled after years of field and laboratory tests conducted on soil samples, geophysical surveys, collection of seismotectonic information to estimate the thickness of land cover, wave speed of shear, the safety factor against liquefaction and the site response in terms of the earthquake amplification factor.
The study was published in the Springer Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment in October 2019. Participating researchers were from ISR and the Indian Institute of Technology, Indian School of Mines IIT (ISM) in Dhanbad. For this study, 23 boreholes were drilled at different locations in Ahmedabad and sensor-based field laboratory tests were carried out at 54 locations. Overall, the western part of Ahmedabad was at the highest risk. The northern and eastern parts presented a moderate seismic hazard.

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Lake Michigan: risk of swimming this afternoon https://cox2008.com/lake-michigan-risk-of-swimming-this-afternoon/ https://cox2008.com/lake-michigan-risk-of-swimming-this-afternoon/#respond Tue, 18 Aug 2020 07:00:00 +0000 https://cox2008.com/lake-michigan-risk-of-swimming-this-afternoon/

GRAND RAPIDS, Michigan – Big waves hit the shores of Lake Michigan again on Tuesday. This resulted in the publication of beach hazard statements for the following counties: Allegan, Van Buren and Ottawa.

Flow from the north is expected to reach 15 to 25 mph this afternoon. These gusty winds will cause the waves to crash to a height of three to five feet, resulting in increasingly dangerous swimming conditions as we move into the early hours of the evening.

The most at-risk locations will be south of Grand Haven to St. Joseph.

Most drownings in the Great Lakes occur when the waves are 3 to 6 feet high. To help prevent drowning, here are some safety tips:

If you ever find yourself quickly straying from shore, you’re probably in a rip current. Be sure to follow the “flip, float and follow” procedure. It’s important to keep in mind that reverse currents will not drag you down if you stay relaxed. So be sure to keep these tips in mind when diving in the water.

Best practice is to stay completely out of the water on Tuesday afternoon. Big waves have been seen crashing into the piers, making it increasingly important to avoid them as well.

Stay safe and stay alert!

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Fire risk remains high for the Timmins area https://cox2008.com/fire-risk-remains-high-for-the-timmins-area/ https://cox2008.com/fire-risk-remains-high-for-the-timmins-area/#respond Wed, 12 Aug 2020 07:00:00 +0000 https://cox2008.com/fire-risk-remains-high-for-the-timmins-area/

Two forest fires have already been extinguished this week

Content of the article

Timmins is still under a “high risk” rating for further forest fires to occur.

Content of the article

Two new fires, which both started earlier this week, have since been put out. One was located right next to the highway. 101, near the highway exit. 144 and the other was located further south on this road, north of Mattagami First Nation.

Two forest fires near Kirkland Lake are “under control” at 0.5 and 0.1 hectares respectively.

The Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MRNF) wildfire map showed the Timmins area highlighted in yellow, which means it is a high risk area.

“The risk of forest fires varies from low to moderate in the southern part of the region, while areas north of Sault Ste. Marie at Temiskaming Shores are now primarily high to extreme risk, ”the ministry website read.

Shayne McCool, fire information officer for the MRNF, told the Daily Press that people should take increased precautions in high and extreme fire conditions, noting that this is a “telltale sign” that the region is very dry.

He reminded the public not to leave their campfires unattended and to always have an adult handling the blaze.

“Before you leave the area, be sure to pour water on the fire, stir the fire, and add more water to make sure the fire is completely out,” McCool said.

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Open source program to assess and map COVID-19 risks – Geospatial World https://cox2008.com/open-source-program-to-assess-and-map-covid-19-risks-geospatial-world/ https://cox2008.com/open-source-program-to-assess-and-map-covid-19-risks-geospatial-world/#respond Tue, 04 Feb 2020 08:00:00 +0000 https://cox2008.com/open-source-program-to-assess-and-map-covid-19-risks-geospatial-world/

Most of the COVID-19 maps I see are typically country-wide choropleth maps, which means they assume a uniform distribution in each geographic unit. There are other maps that use point symbology. However, the problem is that these points usually overlap. The approach taken, on the other hand, increases the spatial resolution and granularity of information that is transmitted to people.

Most other COVID-19 maps / apps typically only focus on confirmed cases / deaths, without paying much attention to quantifying potential risks. For example, if you look at some of the more recent maps, you will see that populated countries like India and Nigeria don’t have a big problem yet, while their large populations alone increase their risk.

These are some of the reasons why I developed a customizable open source program assess the risk mapping of COVID-19 hazards using up-to-date data. This is a very simple methodology to assess the risk of COVID-19 danger geographically. However, it is by no means entirely accurate and should be used with caution. Ideally, it should be reviewed by data scientists, geographic epidemiologists, other health professionals, and policy makers to be adjusted to get a holistic picture of the pandemic.

Objective and logic

The program is based on an open source approach where other users have access to all codes and data, and can customize their cards according to their own criteria. Programmers and data scientists can build on these codes, enhance them with additional data and methods, and make them much more useful for informing the public and potentially policymaking. The program operates according to a simple logic which is based on the danger-risk approach. In hazard research, it is generally accepted that hazard risk = magnitude of hazard x vulnerability.

The extent of the danger is known to some extent and is believed to be a function of current confirmed cases, deaths and recovered cases. Vulnerability, on the other hand, can be defined by the number of people vulnerable to disease, and this is a function of population.

For the hazard component, confirmed cases and deaths collected across the world are used. In addition, for the vulnerability component, a population grid of 1 km is used. The population grid is already downloaded, aggregated at a resolution of 10 km and included in the repository (ppp_2020_10km_Aggregated.zip).

Risk assessment

Multiplication of confirmed cases and population gives a measure of risk, but because testing is not uniform around the world and the number of deaths might be more reliable, the number of deaths is multiplied by the population for the second component. risk. Finally, the larger the population, the more risk it presents at an exponential level even if there are no confirmed cases yet. This is why the population was squared to generate the third risk component.

In the program, each risk component is scaled between 0 and 1000, followed by the calculation of the total risk based on the component a + b + c / 2. This is a first attempt at quantifying risk and it is recognized that countless factors should ideally fit into this mapping (e.g. temperatures, human connectivity and flows, existing policies, type of medical system, economy, level social isolation, etc.).

Program sequence

The program reads all constants and file names from the covConst.py to file. The output of the program can be changed simply by changing the variables (such as the size of the low pass filter). The program covid19RiskMap.py extracts COVID-19 data from the Johns Hopkins CSSE COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) data repository. Then it creates a shapefile containing the confirmed cases and deaths with their lat / long. It also creates two rasters for confirmed cases and deaths. Because rasters are created with relatively fine spatial resolution, a low pass filter using a Gaussian kernel was applied to these rasters for a more meaningful spatial distribution (essentially distributing confirmed cases and deaths to neighboring pixels).

During this process, the geographic references disappear and must therefore be reassigned. The program adjusts the size of the population grid since the raster calculation is performed by numpy, which means that the arrays must be the same size. Each raster is read into a numpy array and the calculations described above are performed. The result is saved as a raster named “covid-risk.tif”.


For the screenshots, ArcGIS Pro was used, but an open source solution like QGIS can also be easily deployed. The final solution could include a viewing capability on Jupyter Notebooks. Ideally, the user could zoom in on parts of the final map in their browser.

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Two-thirds of Contra Costa at risk of fire, chief says https://cox2008.com/two-thirds-of-contra-costa-at-risk-of-fire-chief-says/ https://cox2008.com/two-thirds-of-contra-costa-at-risk-of-fire-chief-says/#respond Thu, 01 Aug 2019 07:00:00 +0000 https://cox2008.com/two-thirds-of-contra-costa-at-risk-of-fire-chief-says/

As the risk of a destructive forest fire approaches this fall, the Contra Costa County Fire Chief is sounding the alarm – signaling that two-thirds of the county is currently classified as a fire risk area.

“Two-thirds of the county is considered a fire hazard severity zone,” Contra Costa Fire Protection District Fire Chief Lewis Broschard III said. Broschard detailed the district’s plan for the current wildfire season at the county supervisors meeting on July 23.

In his report, Broschard said the district responded to 390 fires in 2018, an average of two fires per day during the fire season. He said the fire season lasted 192 days last year.

Virtually all of the fires, he said, were caused by people, either from smoking, faulty vehicles, arson or fires in open spaces.

He also said the fire season will be just as dangerous as the past two years for a variety of reasons.

“This year has a much higher and much denser fuel load than previous years, mostly in our grasses, and that is due to the incredible amount of rain we received,” said Broschard. He also noted the forecast for the rest of the summer and this fall, which calls for continued heat, low humidity and winds.

The fire season will be dangerous in and around Contra Costa County, according to the report.

“Obviously that could happen here,” he said of the threat of fires. He said the county has densely populated areas with significant vegetation and hilly terrain and that the county’s profiles are similar to those of Napa and Sonoma counties, which have been devastated in the past two years by fires. deadly forest.

State fire investigators determined that PG&E equipment caused 17 destructive fires in 2017, but also found that the utility did not cause the fatal Tubbs blaze that razed neighborhoods in Santa Rosa, one of the many hells of October 2017. PG&E reported experiencing equipment failures near the origin of the November camp fire in Butte County, which killed at least 86 people and basically destroyed the town of Paradise.

Broschard said this fire season has the added new factor of power cuts planned by Pacific Gas & Electric. PG&E said it could trigger planned power outages to reduce the likelihood of a fire and keep customers and communities safe.

PG&E said the power could be shut off for up to five days.

“The grocery store will not be open, the gas station will not be open, the refrigerator will not work,” said Broschard. “These kinds of things have to be taken into account. It probably won’t happen county-wide at the same time, but it could affect a city or region you live in and even the one next door.

The utility would declare a power outage under the following conditions: a red flag warning by the National Weather Service; low humidity conditions; a forecast of winds greater than 25 mph and wind gusts greater than 45 mph; and dry fuel on the ground.

The chief urged people to plan ahead for power outages that could last for days. He also recommended: sign up for county emergency alerts at https://cwsalerts.com, prepare homes and properties for a wildfire, develop a family escape plan, and make an emergency supplies kit.

At their July 23 meeting, Contra Costa County supervisors also approved a 64% increase in the fire district installation fee. Supervisors Diane Burgis, Karen Mitchoff and Federal Glover voted in favor of the increase. Supervisors Candace Anderson and John Gioia were absent from the meeting.

The fees, which are paid by the developers, go towards the expenses of the fire district. The increase is expected to begin on November 1.

The 64% increase means fees will now be $ 970 for a house, $ 460 for a multi-family dwelling unit and $ 579 to $ 662 per 1,000 square feet for office, commercial and industrial development. .

This represents an increase from the current Fire District charge of $ 591 per home, $ 285 per multi-family dwelling unit and $ 219 to $ 376 per 1,000 square feet for office, commercial and industrial development.

The Fire District provides services to the towns of Antioch, Clayton, Concord, Lafayette, Martinez, Pittsburg, Pleasant Hill, San Pablo, Walnut Creek and the unincorporated parts of Contra Costa County. The Fire District covers over 310 square miles with approximately 730,000 residents and employees.

The number of people in the Fire District is expected to increase 22%, from 162,000 to 892,000 by 2040, according to a county report. And the district saw a 44% increase in service calls from 2009 to 2018, according to the report.

The fee program was established in the mid-1980s by the Riverview Fire District covering Antioch, Bay Point and Pittsburg. This district was then consolidated into the County Fire District. In 2017, a report from the Fire District concluded that the fee increases were justified to meet the growing needs and demands of the district.

The current fees were set in 2006, 13 years ago. Brouschard said the 64% increase has averaged around 5% per year over the 13-year period since the last fee increase.

Ahead of the vote, Supervisor Burgis said she was against a large increase and wanted to consider setting inflationary adjustments in the future.

“Sixty-four percent sounds like a lot and it’s a lot, and I’m interested in phasing and grandfathering because it’s really expensive to build right now when you budget and plan for all of this,” Burgis said.

“If there is a larger amount that you are going to have to manage, it can have an impact. We have a housing crisis right now, so we need to make sure these things are being built, ”she said.

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Afghanistan: Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment – Afghanistan https://cox2008.com/afghanistan-multi-hazard-risk-assessment-afghanistan/ https://cox2008.com/afghanistan-multi-hazard-risk-assessment-afghanistan/#respond Tue, 18 Dec 2018 08:00:00 +0000 https://cox2008.com/afghanistan-multi-hazard-risk-assessment-afghanistan/


The impacts of natural hazards are increasing worldwide due to population growth, urbanization, globalization and climate change induced changes in extreme weather conditions (UNISDR and CRED, 2016). Poor and fragile countries are the hardest hit by disasters, as the population has less capacity to respond to and recover from these shocks (Hallegatte et al., 2015; Jongman et al., 2015). In addition, there is a close relationship between fragility, conflict and disaster. On the one hand, disasters caused by natural hazards can lead to resource scarcity and social grievances, and have been shown to significantly increase the risk of violent conflict (Nel and Righarts, 2008; Xu et al., 2016 ). On the other hand, conflict and fragility increase social vulnerability and can therefore intensify the impacts of disasters.

Being both a country prone to natural hazards and conflict, Afghanistan is highly exposed and vulnerable to disasters, including floods, earthquakes, droughts, avalanches and landslides. An estimated 59 percent of the population is affected by climate shocks, while 19 percent suffer from security-related shocks (World Bank, 2016), with more than 16,000 deaths from floods and earthquakes since. 1990. In addition to the impact on the population, hazards frequently affect economic sectors and major infrastructures. Prolonged droughts strongly affect agricultural production, especially since irrigation infrastructure is often lacking. Some of the main road transport corridors, such as the Salang Pass connecting Kabul to the northern regions, are closed every year due to avalanches and landslides. Strong earthquakes occur every few years around Afghanistan – there have been around 100 destructive earthquakes since 1900 according to the CATDAT database (Daniell et al., 2011). In 2015, a 7.5 Mw earthquake in the Hindu Kush mountains left 117 people dead and destroyed more than 7,000 homes (IFRC, 2015).

Effective disaster risk management is therefore increasingly important to support the development and stability of Afghanistan. Over the past decades, disaster risk management in Afghanistan has focused on responding (Shroder and Shroder, 2014) and recovery (Sadiqi et al., 2017) to events. Recently, the Afghan government has started to work more intensively with development partners, including the World Bank, United Nations organizations and various NGOs, on prevention and preparedness activities. This includes the construction of physical protection measures against floods, landslides and avalanches, as well as the implementation of community early warning systems.

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